A time to look back and a time to look forward

As 2008 draws to a close it is time to look back and assess how well I did in my predictions for 2008, at the start of the year, and let you know about a couple of guest bloggers who have very kindly agreed to guest post for me while I’m on holiday.

The two gentlemen in question (and in order) are and Professor David B. Benson, who regularly offers thoughtful comments over 2008 and Pradeep Indrakanti, who has also been a regular commentator on the blog’s content. He also co-writes the Energy Engineering Blog, which is worth checking out.

So how do I think that I did in my post on 1 January 2008. … I’m sure you’ll give me your opinion.

My first prediction was that the price of food grains would continue to rise, and my fourth prediction was that rationally, or not, rising food prices would be blamed on biofuels. I warned of the rise of an alliance of big oil and big food retail on the issue.

One the whole those two came true this year, the price of grains rose considerably from historical lows helped by ethanol from corn in the US; asset price inflation in the first nine months of the year and an influx of speculators trying to make an even faster buck.

I didn’t predict that or the bubble. If I had I wouldn’t be writing this now.

On the alliance between big oil and big food. The US grocery business felt the sharp end of rising food prices this year and went to battle defending the price rises by blaming increasing crop prices. Despite the relatively small part of the cost of processed food that is attributable to crop prices. I’ll give myself half a mark there because I can’t recall writing anything much about the oil lobby.

Point three, about a fed driving a biofuel power car to demand back taxes from a home brewer, didn’t as far as I know happen in 2008. So nothing there…

Point two about municipalities following the lead of San Francisco and Stagecoach in Kilmarnock and using used oil for their transportation needs. Toronto did. Where Toronto goes today the rest of the world follows tomorrow, perhaps. Is one more, more? Yes! Don’t forget Ineos.

Point five,  I am happy to reiterate Cellulosic ethanol based around degrading cellulose and lignin and fermenting the simple sugars they yield will still be five years away at the end of the month, and also at the end of December 2009.

So I’d give myself around 3.5/5. Not too flashy. But I’ll not be making any more predictions for a while.